A Jim Carrey Happy New Year – eleven years old and still very, very funny, though, for some reason this is no longer embeddable, so, you’ll have to watch it on YouTube.
Happy New Year to one and all and thanks for reading.
REMINDER: All investment, economics, and finance related material now appears at the new IaconoResearch.com. For the time being at least, this has become a personal blog covering a variety of mostly unrelated topics.
On December 31, 2010,
in Our Culture,
by Tim
Once again, it’s time for those who dared to prognosticate a year ago to look back on what they were thinking at the time and, in many cases (like mine), take their lumps. Recall that over at the old blog in Predictions for 2010 I went out on a limb and made some very specific predictions about what we’d see in 2010. As it turns out, that specificity wasn’t such a good idea. It seems that the results were much better in previous years when the accuracy of the predictions was a little more open to interpretation. Oh well, live and learn.
For anyone who might be interested, here’s a recap of the last four years of annual prediction reviews:
- A review of 2006 predictions
- A review of 2007 predictions
- A review of 2008 predictions
- A review of 2009 predictions
As always, these are interesting to look back upon if for no other reason than to see where we’ve been. It’s funny to think about predicting the housing bubble would not pop in 2006 and that it would in 2007 (as measured by home price declines). One thing is certain, it did pop and has stayed popped despite the best efforts of the government and the Federal Reserve to re-inflate it.
This year, it looks like the Fed ruined many of my predictions at the Jackson Hole conference over the summer when they started talking about printing money and the prices of just about everything that doesn’t show up in the consumer price index began to rise.
This item at The Economist has links to their top 20 charts for the year that officially concludes in about 17 hours. Below is the one that, in my estimation, is the most important.
It should be an interesting year ahead for China as their efforts to slow inflating asset bubbles will be measured against the potential damage that could be done if they go too far. This Bloomberg report detailing diplomatic cables between the U.S. and China released by Wikileaks shows the Chinese government is well aware of exactly what’s going on.
On December 31, 2010,
in Uncategorized,
by Tim
MUST READS
China slows as tightening start to bite – Telegraph
Your Medicare taxes won’t cover what you’ll cost – AP
Commodities Beat Stocks, Bonds, Dollar in 2010 – Bloomberg
Hyperinflation Will Drive Gold To Unthinkable Heights – Zero Hedge
Should Cash-Strapped States Be Allowed to Declare Bankruptcy? – CNBC
Is Gold – Or Fiat Currency – In a Bubble? – Washington’s Blog
Faber: Long-Term Treasuries A ‘Suicidal’ Investment – Bloomberg
More big paydays at Fannie, Freddie – Fortune
States Try to Force Mortgage Workouts – WSJ
Kiss 4% mortgage rates goodbye – CNN/Money
MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil Heads For Highest Annual Close Since 2007 – Bloomberg
Gold to complete a decade at top in annual finish – Commodity Online
Bond fund investors face tough new era – MarketWatch
Where We Are, And Where We’re Headed (2011) – Market Ticker
NYSE Margin Debt Back to Year 2000 Pre-TechCrash Levels – Jesse’s Cafe
Copper Advances to Record on Supply Shortage Concern – Bloomberg
IT’S OFFICIAL: The Bears Were Wrong – Business Insider
Bloom comes off international stock funds – MarketWatch
ECONOMY/WORLD/HOUSING/BANKING
A New Year brings new economic headwinds – Fortune
Academic Economists to Consider Ethics Code – NY Times
Forecasters see growth in 2011, but risk factors remain – Washington Post
China Officials Shared Concerns About Asset Bubbles With U.S. – Bloomberg
Euro has 1-in-5 chance of lasting decade: UK think-tank – Reuters
Yuan Advances Beyond 6.6 Per Dollar for First Time Since 1993 – Bloomberg
A mortgage clearinghouse becomes a villain in the foreclosure mess – Washington Post
Ignore The NAR: Existing Home Sales Will Plummet In December – Business Insider
S&P revises shadow inventory timeline upward, again – Housing Wire
Ex-Treasury chief Paulson loses $1 mln on DC home – Reuters
Economist Ties Gold Bet to Bernanke Resignation – CNBC
On December 30, 2010,
in Commodities, Stocks,
by Tim
This chart appeared over at EconomPicData yesterday and, while I have no idea what, if anything, it could possibly mean, it sure is interesting to look at.
The scales aren’t all that different either – on the left it’s 2.5-to-1 from top-to-bottom for stocks and 2.1-to-1 on the right for the silver-to-gold ratio (or is it gold-to-silver?)
On December 30, 2010,
in Economy,
by Tim
Good news for American workers comes via this report from the Labor Department in which it was revealed that jobless claims fell from 422,000 to 388,000 for the week ending December 25th, the first time this important leading indicator for the labor market has been below the psychologically important level of 400,000 since mid-2008.
There were no special factors involved, however, this is a time of the year where seasonal adjustments come into play. For example, actual jobless claims last week were 522,000 and that number is set to go higher in the month ahead as seasonal help is let go. Moreover, this provides no indication of hiring, just firing, and it seems that American companies are keen on hiring overseas these days wherever possible, at least according to this story on Tuesday.
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